Researchers at the National Institutes of Health (NIH) have developed a mathematical model that predicts how weight and body fat in children respond to changes in diet and physical activity, with the results of the study appearing in The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology.

The model was developed to observe how childhood bodyweight responds to obesity interventions and considers children’s unique physiology, including changes in body composition as they grow.

It is yet to be tested in a clinical trial to determine whether the model is an effective tool to use for weight management, though at this point it does serve as an indicator to help set realistic expectations.

To create the model, researchers analysed data from children between the ages of 5-18 and compared their predictions against actual changes in children as measured in other clinical studies.

In their findings the NIH observed that the model accurately simulated observed changes in body composition, energy expenditure and weight, while also highlighting that children could be eating more calories for each pound gained when compared to adults.

Additionally, the study suggested that there may be times when children can “outgrow” obesity without requiring weight loss. This could be expected during periods of high growth in males who are not severely obese at the time of intervention.

The NIH’s National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases (NIDDK) is using the model to develop an online tool for health professionals, while the model’s code is available on request through NIDDK’s Technology Advancement Office.

A copy of the findings can be found in The Lancet Diabetes and Endocrinology, available here.